The 2020 NFL Week 11 Roundup | Seven Ways From Sunday
Step Right Up, Step Right Up! Next?!?!
High atop the bustling and frenetic Park Avenue and East 52nd intersection in Midtown New York City, the NFL presides over a worldwide multimedia sports juggernaut whose conglomerated enterprise value punches north of $100B. Spread across four floors in a 44-story masonry-grey and imposingly monolithic building that calls the Blackstone Group its primary tenant, the NFL’s Headquarters are at once sensible and thematically on-trend. Renovated nearly a decade ago, the space reflects the League’s “Brand Identity” throughout and features an unfussy, clean design that includes reconfigurable zones, collaborative spaces, angular ceiling planes, continuous linear lighting features, vast window expanses and a football-shaped chrome reception desk. The Executive Offices on the 7th floor share the same abundantly daylit curtain wall as The League Room. The defining feature of this all-important Room is the 385 square foot Italian marble conference table featuring a rectangular stainless steel inlay, ringed with 36 high-back leather-clad $1400 Steelcase rolling office chairs. The League Room was custom-designed to play host to secretive in-person if rare Owner meetings above all else. In recent weeks, the supreme technically-inclined and Covid-friendly expansive nature of the League Room has been expertly deployed to serve as the raw nerve center for the NFL’s seeming chief purpose for existing in these waning days of 2020: Media Broadcasting Rights Negotiations.
The NFL’s current agreements with CBS, NBC, Fox, Disney/ESPN, AT&T/DirecTV and Amazon generally began in 2013 and are set to expire shortly in stairstep fashion in 2022. The $7.7B raked in from the sum of its broadcast partners is distributed in even allotments to each of the NFL’s 32 Teams and irreplaceably represents the single largest line-item contributors to each of their Balance Sheets. And so it’s with delicately deliberate ambition and its ever-forward leaning tendencies that the League embarks upon a tortuous path of squeezing more from a business model of rapidly diminishing returns and ever-proliferating expenses. Much like a cuckoo clock that is reliably set an hour early, the NFL’s most noteworthy quality is its determined insistence upon pro-actively reupping steady, reliable and ever-lucrative broadcast agreements with its partners well ahead of their expiration; the better to plan meaningfully ahead, navigate through the fog of the dilutive and fraying future media landscape and best of all lock-in elevated revenue streams well into the next decade. As so as it currently stands, Fox ponies up $1.7B for rights to broadcast Sunday NFC games in addition to its Thursday Night Football package. CBS shells out a cool $1B for Sunday AFC matchups. Sunday Night Football in America costs Comcast NBC $950m, a relative bargain measured against its outsize #1 rated prime time setting. NBC’s deal makes Disney’s ESPN $1.9B deal just for Monday Night Football look laughably absurd by comparison for what is widely considered the worst perennial lineup of yawn-inducing games in the Business. For all that extra coin, all ESPN is entitled to is unlimited rights to NFL replay footage for its trademark SportsCenter and other programming. Super Bowl rotation participation by its sister ABC network is NOT included by design. All of this has Mickey Mouse swallowing sour grapes by the bunch as steam escapes uncontrollably from his giant hunched, saddened ears.
Add up these head-spinning price tags (which don’t even take into account Amazon’s $570M limited streaming deal and WarnerMedia’s $1.5B Sunday Ticket) and throw them up against an increasingly ambivalent — and aging — audience, and you’ll understand why the numbers don’t crunch as crisply and succinctly as they have in years past. For instance, so far this Season ratings are down 6% League-wide. They dropped 6% for Fox’s NFC Sunday games (17.4 million viewers) and are admirably off just 1% for CBS’s AFC package (17.84 million). They’ve fallen much more precipitously with Fox’s Thursday Night Football (12.8 million) and NBC’s — and NFL’s — signature Sunday Night Football (17.2 million), each down north of 16%. Industry insiders will gleefully point out that ratings are a direct product of the caliber of the matchups involved. Who wants to see anything involving the Jets, except for escapist how-low-can-they-go thrills? And of course anything Tom Brady draws eyeballs. Same for America’s Team and the white-hot Steelers. But overall, the trends are clear and alarming and the contours outlined are not good ones. Fan engagement is down. Viewership is on the decline: off BIG in 2018, up a pinch from and an easy comp in 2019 and slumping yet again in 2020. And credible competition for time-pressed viewer attention spans proliferates abundantly in Netflix, video games and others. All this is to say that the NFL’s primary argument for its premium Broadcast Right pricing strategy revolves around football’s unique ability to routinely draw millions upon millions of viewers to its live Big Tent events in an increasingly fragmenting media ecosystem. NO one else, the argument goes, can deliver the audience advertisers crave in on fell swoop, and to do so week in and week out culminating in the Super Bowl which still reliably pull-in more than 115M viewers annually. To this point, 26 of the Top 30 shows this Season are football games. But what happens if the poles in the NFL’s fabled Big Tent start to splinter? What happens when the countervailing and punishing winds begin whipping and tearing at the Big Top’s fabric?
These thorny questions among a hornet’s nest of many others plops us right back into the NFL’s 7th floor League Room perched above its shiny NYC headquarters where logistical, competitive and financial calculus soaked in Palace Intrigue are playing out before the NFL’s toothy and all-knowing Chesire Cat grin. The stately League Room, you see, is where the NFL is presiding over negotiations with each of it’s multicast partners. One by one, the League parades up is counterpart’s attorneys, negotiators, research analysts, actuaries and executives all in a mutual attempt to sew up long-term contracts ahead of the Super Bowl next February. But while significant audience erosion is real and undeniable, so too is the cost of putting on the Big Show. Hence, the NFL’s reported ASK for a whopping 57% average increase in rights fees. And so its with a flop sweat and teeth-clenched grimaces of worry that Network executives eyeball prospective contracts. They wonder how they can can charge 57% higher ad rates for viewership that sloughed 6% alone last year. It doesn’t take an excel sliver to prove that those numbers don’t tie. White Elephant contracts as Loss Leaders, in short. Loss Leaders that pump the brakes on — not reverse — the continued decay of the advertising-supported Network business model. As judged from a Balance Sheet perspective, Fox (newly cleaved from its Regional Sports Networks and Cable/Newspaper properties) is going to groaningly strain to sign on the dotted line. CBS and NBC can stomach the hit but the fact that they can afford it makes the terms no less odious or gag-inducing. Disney/ESPN, though, remains the outfit with the deepest pockets, the least debt, a tinge of moxy and apparently an ax to grind. For Disney executives made an interesting play of its negotiations and came armed with razor sharp elbows. Recent reports have Disney making a naked muscled grab for NBC’s SNF package and with it a Super Bowl berth in addition to simulcasting ESPN’s MNF games on mainline ABC. Disney figures that at $1.9b, they’re entitled to MORE than the peanuts they’re subsisting on now as they witness the CBS/Fox/NBC gravy train flee ever further from the Mouse House. AS with any contract hammered out by the best counsel money can buy, NBC has the right of first refusal matching anything Disney manages to cough up. Wherever this ends, don’t expect NBC’s grip on its marquee programming block of the Season (around which NBCUniversal’s ENTIRE portfolio — including Movies/Cable Networks/Theme Parks — is promoted and built) to loosen any time soon. And so back and forth go the tense and fraught negotiations between the NFL and individually Fox, CBS, Disney and NBC at ever-spiraling prices. The one common denominator in all this math is the NFL’s foxy strategy of allowing the networks to negotiate among themselves thereby further inflating their collective cost for what all parties admit to be an asset on the decline. But when that declining asset participates in a market unto itself, well THEN. Buyer beware. So with every passing year, the NFL increasingly offers its wares to an otherwise nonchalantly engaged and uninterested fan base. But the genius of the NFL is knowing that (at least for 2020) its customers are its broadcasters who in turn have nowhere else to turn for relevancy. And NOBODY wants to be the silly goose without a seat when the music stops. THAT Big Tent even when outfitted with smaller bleachers and shorter poles remains the only place in town where the circus NEVER stops and ALWAYS plays to a paying crowd. Ringmaster Roger Goodell and the League have two words in response: Ka-ching, Ka-ching.
Turning to the NFL age Week 11, the Carnival barker bellows forth just within earshot of the Playoffs. Case in point the towering Steelers who took on the quivering Jags whose own 1–9 record perfectly encapsulates their tale of crushing collapse and bruising unworthiness thus far this Season. JAX’s backup QB Jake Luton experiment (in for an injured Gardner Minshew) fell flat on its face, and at home no less. The rookie #6 Draft pick was simply shredded out of the starting gate (just 16/37 151 yards 4 INTs) and his Team played down to his standard in a 27–3 devastating LOSS. Though to be fair, they could have launched an arsenal of fire torches Steel City’s way and would still have had to endure a return fusillade of diffusive lightning-drenched thunderstorms such was the inequity of the dueling parties. Pittsburgh, undefeated through Week 11, boast a Franchise-best starting record and are to host the Baltimore City Birds on Thanksgiving night. The Jags look around, meanwhile, at the barren, smoky scorched earth surrounding them and wonder how to spell MERCY. At the same time up in Minnesota, the troubled Cowboys caught up with the Vikings and found some redemption. DAL formerly-concussed QB Andy Dalton is BACK as is Zeke’s rushing game (103 yards). Mix them together and you have the recipe for Success, 31–28, despite a still problematic Defense allowing for far too much yardage encroachment. MIN QB Kirk Cousins delivered a standout performance (22/30 314 3TDs) that in the end wasn’t able to pull the freight train into the station. Both Teams (DAL 3–7, MIN 4–6) are burdened with underwater records so NO harm, NO foul I suppose. The Cowboys in the weak NFL least, FTW. Down in New Orleans, the Saints hosted a nice picnic for the visiting Falcons who were not only on Defense from the jump but were panic-stricken to find themselves ON THE MENU. NOLA absolutely roasted ATL, 24–7. In a week that offered sobering news that Drew Bees is now nursing 11 (out of 24!!!) broken ribs and a punctured lung, Saints fans were delighted with King Cake elation as utility QB Taysom Hill delivered the team’s 7th W in a row; a Co-headlining effort along with NOLA’s stalwart Defense. Falcons QB Matt Ryan could only seemingly stand and watch and get sacked (8 times) and get picked (twice). ATL, at 3–7, slides further into the NFC South shadows.
The OTHER big experiment in the NFL is showing premature signs of wear. MIA’s much-heralded TuaNation push was unceremoniously couched in the 4th quarter of their ultimate Loss to Denver, 13–20. The #5 Draft pick had a rough go of it (11/20 83 yards 1TD) and was done no favors by a leaky Offensive line that allowed for 6 sacks. Doubting Thomas ala Ryan Fitzpatrick cooked up productive playing time for the brief minutes allowed but ended up in the end getting wrapped up along with his helpless teammates in a big ‘ol Denver omelet, cooked to order. Tua is still scheduled to start next week after his Brian Flores-sanctioned timeout. Over in Landover, yet another injury to report this time to Louisiana State #1 Draft Pick QB sensation Joe Burrows early in the 3rd Quarter. He was hit in the left leg which twisted in ways legs shouldn’t twist; his ACL, MCL and knee took the brunt as did prospects for the rest of his Season. A healable injury for Joe but a crushing blow to the Bengals who call him the centerpiece of their generational renaissance. I guess that rebirth will have to wait until next year sadly. But hey, how about WAS QB lex Smith who celebrated his first Win in two years (20–9)? The Club sure could use the good news but perhaps the best news of all might be the inklings of a solid Offensive squad under the WAS hood. THe coming week will color in the lines on that one so stay tuned WAS fans. Meanwhile, Pats at Texans saw the return of the Deshaun Watson (28/37 344 yards 2TDs) that HOU fans get all googley-eyed for. Dreamy Deshaun delivered the goods in handing NE a 20–27 Loss. HOU’s strength emblematically put a harsh spotlight on the WHOA that are the Pats. Despite a relatively robust outing from Pats QB Cam Newton, his support on both sides of the football appears to be melting before our very eyes. Sailors aboard the SS Belichick are now furiously bailing out precious less acre-feet of water than the ship is precipitously taking on as they meet their 4–6 Record head-on. OH the humanity.
And finally in our Round Robin, the Packers surrendered to INDY in a 31–34 OT defeat. It didn’t look like it in the first two quarters (where the Colts appeared headed to a blowout Loss) but Philip Rivers and his Colts battled back from a massive half-time hole to overcome GB in the end. Much credit, too, to Indy’s commercial-strength Defense. TEN visited Baltimore and came away with an OT WIN, 30–24. BAL star QB Lamar Jackson is still offering up routinely subdued performances perhaps as a result of opposing Teams expertly crafting up an antidote his 2019 secret sauce. TEN QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry are much the Offensive weaponry deployed to expert use as evidenced by the Team’s 7–3 record, tied for top honors in the AFC South. Over in Tampa Bay, the Rams offed the Tom Brady and his Buccs in a last-minute 27–24 victory last night. LAR QB Jared Goff smashed the gas pedal at just the precise moment, enough to loft the Rams atop the NFC West rankings. Our beloved Brownies have quietly amassed a surprising 7–3 record and march on and OVER the emaciated Eagles, 22–17. Said a Philly fan: Look out Below! Speaking of look out below, the forlorn Jets have now been mathematically eliminated Playoff contention. Though, emotionally and realistically, they’ve been knocked out for years. The Jets bury their heads in their steaming 0–10 Record, the latest L dropped on them courtesy the Chargers who finally can throw up a W on their Board. A warning sign for LA, however: the 6 point margin of victory in the 34–28 games isn’t the gaping chasm it should be when pitted against the League’s WORST Team. But at least we got to see the burgeoning magic of LAC’s rookie QB Justin Herbert/WR Keenan Allen pairing; one that holds promise as much as it does water. And finally, Carolina shutout the Lions 20–0. CAR backup QB PJ Walker (in for injured Teddy Bridgewater) delivered a bill of goods convincingly while DET QB Matt Stafford played through some type of debilitating thumb impediment and an overall pall of embarrassment. As in Poker, sometimes you gotta know when to fold your cards. Otherwise YOU’LL get folded in half. Tough toenails, DET fans.
