The 2023 NFL Week 8 Roundup | Jump Ball

Olympic Tower in New York City sits discreetly in midtown at the touristy, bustling intersection of 51st Street and 5th Avenue. The 52-year old, 620 foot tall mid-rise skyscraper was designed with a shiny, dark glass facade commissioned specifically to reflect its famous neighbor just across the street: St. Patrick’s Cathedral. Officially designated American bronze on the Pantone color wheel, over time that shiny, dark glass has sort of faded and slumped into a dull, unappealing brown; a victim of unrelenting UV damage over the ensuing decades. Certainly NOT a mirror of St. Patrick’s stately, weathered marble and stained glass windows just 60 feet away. You’d be forgiven for passing by the humdrum building and not giving it a second thought. The building’s sheer invisibility in the middle of midtown mayhem (a block from Rockefeller Plaza) is just what the NBA desired in opting for a new headquarters. Conservative, easily accessible and affordable. The NBA has occupied Olympic Tower’s 11th through 20th floors, spanning north of 175K square feet, since 1998 and recently extended its lease until 2035. The NBA’s inconspicuousness has served it well for 25 years; a characteristic that comes in particularly handy as the league’s once-a-decade media rights negotiations quietly tip off. Officials from the biggest media conglomerates have been spotted dashing into the building as have their counterparts from Apple, Google, Netflix and Amazon in what’s likely to be the sports world’s final grab at the cashpot amidst an ever-shifting media landscape and the funding infrastructure that undergirds the entire enterprise. One by one, the NBA’s counterparty negotiators look on through the tinted glass and steal glimpses of St. Patrick’s fabled spires while at the same time praying for mercy in seeking a piece of the final blue chip sports franchise on the block. OH how the flies on the interior walls of an unassuming half-century old, faded brown building will have quite the tale to tell.

It’s probably not a coincidence that the media rights for all the major sports franchises went up for bid in tight collar of time recently, especially considering the length of the contracts involved. The NFL famously cemented last year a $110B sweetheart deal with Paramount Global, Comcast/NBCUniversal, Fox and Disney that runs through 2033; a deal that essentially doubled the rights fees from its 2014–2022 predecessor. NOT included in this amount is neither Amazon’s $11B contract to carry Thursday Night Football for 11 seasons nor Google’s $2B annual invoice to stream Sunday Ticket exclusively on YouTube TV. The NFL is clearly not wanting for pennies or, umm, commas. Major League Baseball, for its part in 2021, played Tiny Tim to the NFL’s Scrooge McDuck. A seven-year deal with Disney, Fox and WarnerBrosDiscovery penciled out to mere pennies on the NFL dollar: $12.2B. Though notoriously low ratings and a raft of 2,430 in-season games add to grievous value dilution. Funny how $12.2B can be considered a pittance. Speaking of pittance, let’s not forget about our hockey fans. Again in 2021 — see a pattern here, the NHL papered a $4.3B deal with WarnerBrosDiscovery and Disney to air its icy wares through 2029; a deal that about doubled what the League was receiving prior. All things considered, not too shabby. More is ALWAYS better.

Which brings us back to Olympic Tower in NYC. It’s the NBA’s turn for its run at the cash pinwheel. And it’s likely to back up its Brinks truck, if industry sources prove accurate. The last time the sports media machine bellied up to the NBA negotiating table in 2014, a $24B contract with Disney and then-owner Warner Bros/TNT was struck that ran successfully for nine years. The contract almost tripled it’s 2008–2016 doppelganger. The current contract is so 2014. Negotiations for the NBA’s next rights package, which begins at the conclusion of next year’s 2024–2025 season, don’t officially commence until April 2024. But that hasn’t stopped whisper negotiations from launching nine months early. The NBA welcomes all of it as it provides critical benchmarking information and sets what the market will bare for the sports world’s most coveted, youthful and moneyed demographic. What NBA negotiators have heard so far from would-be window shoppers is nothing short of a layup. Incumbent broadcasters Disney and WarnerBrosDiscovery/TNT await their exclusive negotiating window with trepidation as they are convinced the NBA is sure to test the market waters once their maxed-out credit cards are handed back to them with a look of concern. Disney is in the midst of a Company-wide reorganization with a spotlight on anything media-related. 7000 pink slips where handed out this past May. Further, all options are on the table for cuts, including selling off its trophy ABC network and exploring an outside minority investment in fabled ESPN. Disney’s movies aren’t bringing in the cash tsunamis they once were predictably expected to and its stable of cable properties are either hemorrhaging cash (resulting from advertiser disinterest) or folding (Disney Jr, FXX, Freeform). Disney’s other pilar, its theme park division, continues in its cash cow ways but recent and frequent price increases and insulting cost debundling (FastPass/Genie+/Lightning Lane) comes amid a wave of consumer pullback and barkings of gross overreach. WarnerBrosDiscovery, meanwhile, is digesting its own $43B purchase of WarnerMedia’s slew of cable-centric properties from AT&T. One property that conveyed with the purchase: $156B in debt. So basically a python swallowing a 215 pound white-tailed deer. IN short, Disney and WarnerBrosDiscovery are in no mood to overspend nor do they have the bankroll or appetite to compete with less balance sheet laden competitors. The NBA has no shortage of suitors lining up to try on their shoes for size.

Most anxious for a swipe at the ball are Comcast/NBCUniversal and Amazon. NBC, once emblematic with its popular NBA on NBC programming in the 1980s and early 1990s, is back and serious at making a credible and lucrative offer to NBA negotiators. Comcast comes armed with plenty of availability on its well-distributed USA Network alongside its traditional NBC network. Add-in Peacock as a streaming plug-in and the Philly-based company thinks it has what makes for a compelling proposal. It also has more leeway to spend as its in better relative financial health than each of the incumbents. Amazon, for its part, has practically unlimited spend capabilities when compared with its media-stayed competitors. It has also proven to be quite adept and successful at programming live sports with its well-regarded Thursday Night Football broadcasts via Amazon Prime. To add to the gaggle of inspired interest, Netflix is potentially throwing its online hat into the ring making for a transformative play into the live sports realm. It’s kinda considered a one-trick pony in the industry with viewership careening from highs to lows depending on whether programming choices stick their landing or flail helplessly. Sports, as theory goes, would help to stabilize viewership from Fall to Summer and play a prime roll in anchoring its nascent ad-supported programming tier. But at what cost. Netflix isn’t known to overspend but basketball might just be the one arena left where the gym doors remain ajar to opportunity. Same story for Apple. An unlimited budget for a bespoke service stricken with a limited audience. But money talks and never count out the planet’s richest corporation as a buzzer-beater, however unlikely. Beyond these entrants, Fox, Paramount Global and Google/YouTube are each reportedly kicking the tires on the NBA’s whip. Their interest is debatable, as-is their tolerance for yet another banner expense. But their presence in and around Olympic Tower dispels any notion of disinterest, a pristine seller’s market be damned.

Which is all lucrative music to the NBA’s ears. Commissioner Adam Silver is no dummy and is well aware that he needs to balance multi-cast reach with dollar bills. Sure Netflix, Amazon and their ilk can easily write checks to make headlines. But their limited online-only reach (while likely the future), needs to be carefully balanced with the continued need for games to be broadcast on traditional cable and free-over-the-air broadcast networks. It’s the ad-supported model that props up and underpins the entire media ecosystem as we all know it. Remove the eyeball bait, forcing only online options, and the traditional media model collapses on itself. The NBA is well aware that this has the potential to limit their total addressable audience and remove a whole army of potential suitors for future franchise rights moving forward. Which serves to undermine the value of its main dish. If people don’t come for the NBA’s main dish, the league is forced to accept leftover pricing for what was once a Michelin-starred meal.

Which is why the pricey deal the NBA is likely to ink is perhaps the last of its kind. The media industry is at an inflection point where cable and traditional broadcast media are rapidly losing share and resources to pay for yesterday’s prime objective. In their place are new-media sensations looking to become the media beacons of the next generation. The NBA finds itself at an interesting nexus where the two contrasting worlds are each fighting for relevancy and credibility. The league’s popular games are conveniently serving as the currency. At the current rate, the NBA is likely to harvest a near-tripling of its rights fees. A $75B contract wouldn’t be out of this world. It’s likely to include a cable, broadcast network and several streaming components across the next decade. By going last, the NBA will have a final opportunity to exercise maximum leverage. It’s presiding over a storefront amidst a chaotic changing of the media guards. Everybody wants IN as new media attempts to out-muscle and elbow aside their Mad Men-esque counterparts. The NBA wouldn’t have it any other way and knows there will be plenty of chum for everyone who wants a bite at the prize. Oh it’ll come with at a sweet, record-breaking price tag attached but that’s the price of admission for a chance at the final brass ring. That nondescript, horrendously brown Olympic Tower at 51st and 5th? Not so invisible anymore. Well played, NBA.

As the sun sets on Week 8 in the NFL, the tables keep turning, some tides are rising and some listing ships are in danger of succumbing to disastrous sprung leaks. The week began with the Bills finally regaining some composure (against the underwater Bucs) after horror-of-horrors, suffering a humiliating defeat to the lowly Patriots in Week 7. Such is the frustrating plight of a would-be powerhouse prone to careening from high to low and back again, yanking fans along for the incongruous ride. Speaking of powerhouses, the Cowboys redeclared their NFC might in a 43–20 romping of the Rams. Dak is back at all-star caliber playing form while the Team’s DEF snuffed out any resemblance of LAR offensive progress. With LAR QB Matt Stafford out with a thumb injury, the LA team at 3–5 will be lucky to maintain Wild Card standing at only Week 9. LA’s downhill descent from 2022 Super Bowl stardom continues uninterrupted.

Meanwhile, there’s trouble upstate in San Francisco where the 49ers are unraveling like a spindle of unkempt yarn. With three losses in a row, the one-time Super Bowl favorites are suddenly plumbing the depths of catastrophe. Wounded with key offensive weaponry out due to injury (LT Trent Williams, WR Debo Samuel), star QB Brock Purdy (just out of concussion protocol, maybe prematurely?) suddenly appears mortal. SF’s typically battle-hardened DEF doesn’t look so impenetrable anymore with its flakes of rust appearing throughout. Taken together, not a good look for a team predicated on the discovery of gold in California. On the other side of the ledger, Cincy is BACK. As is QB Joe Burrow who is playing like pure, ahem, gold. Whatever calf injury hobbled he and team in the early weeks of the season is clearly no more. The Bengals underlined SF malaise 31–17. Continuing the theme of abrupt discomfort, the Chiefs strutted defiantly into Denver and tripped into a stunning 8–24 defeat. To the not-good Broncos of all teams. Patrick Mahomes recorded no TDs and collected 2 INTs in a very unusually slop-filled performance for the MVP. His RECs couldn’t catch a ball nor could they catch a break. DEN QB Russell Wilson picked a pitch-perfect time to remind the League how to spell his name. And that it comes with an exclamation point at the end. As does the DEF show the Broncos put on. All in all, a humbling setback for a super star team swaddling itself in Taylor Swift hoopla while that once buoyant background pop music turns more dark, menacing…and pressing. The team’s Sunday matchup with MIA oughta be interesting.

In our weekly Round Robin, the threatening Vikings WON in a big matchup with the sinking Packers 24–10 but LOST a critical weapon in QB Kirk Cousins who suffered an apparent Achilles rupture late in the game. Kirk is likely out the rest of the season leaving in his wake plenty of questions and a ship temporarily adrift in an unlikely mid-season flex. The Titans are back in the news — in a good way — with their debut of rookie QB Will Levis (in for injured Ryan Tannehill) who showed out and thrilled Nissan fans with blockbuster numbers (19/29 238yds 4TDs). The Falcons tried their best to keep up and nearly came back in the 4th but ultimately ran outta gas, 23–28. TEN fans aren’t used to these kind of fireworks but ain’t nobody complaining, maybe except the ATL. The Fins splashed away the Pats 31–17, the Jags clawed down Steel City in a game with officiating controversy galore (and/or sour grapes) and WAS was expectedly cooked by unstoppable Eagles. Finally, the Jets took on the Giants and came away with the OT WIN despite a game chock full of slop. A critical officiating mistake basically handed the game to NYJ much to the chagrin of the down-and-out Giants. Though at 2–6, would a reversal of fortune in the game reverse the misfortune NYG is already entombed in? Tough questions, I know.